год 2010-й - более 30.000.000 обращений

I belong to the retiring generation of books-magazines culture people. My first books influencing futures studies since 1951 were"Anticipations" of H G Wells and "The Future of Earth and Mankind" of K E Ziolkowsky, and so on till current articles in "Fu- tures", "The Futurist", "Futuribles", "Futuribili", "Technological Forecasting and Soci- al Change" et al. All meetings and other personal contacts on futures problems were and are in fact for me only discussions about ideas and theories presented in books and maga zines.Today I begin to adopt to E-mail culture (not yet to Internet etc.), but suppose that shall go into the better world with old fashioned books and magazines. As a matter of fact I am as much as a spokesman of the technological forecasting science school developping traditions laid by V A Bazarov-Rudnev (1924-1927) and then together with my Western colleagues (1956-1964). This school as well known does negate reduction of social forecasts to predictions only due Oedipus effect of self-fullfilling and self-destroying predictions (through decisions). Instead of primitive predictions there is proposed a problems-goals approach with exploratory and normative forecasting. But such approach leads to permanent conflict between forecasting and modern decision ma- king, becouse the futurist appears as a criticaster for decisionmaker destroying his image as a good politician.It is necessary to build a bridge between the forecast and the decision The forecast may play a role of evaluation of possible consequences of planned decisions and so to be an instrumentarium for raising decisions effectivity.

I did sacrifice for this ideology nearly 50 years of my life, but without any success. All my counter-partners beginning from publishers and up to several big bosses demand predictions or better prophesies only. I would like to believe, that the next generation of futurists will be in this relation more successful. That is why I do pay today more attenti- on to my students rather then to my studies.

It is a pity of course that till nowadays we often not distinguish two different things: forecast as a product of future thought, and that of future research. The first belongs to philosophy, the second - to science. If philosophical reflections so you can tell all what is coming into your mind. If scientific research so we need the research program: object, subject, problem, goal, tasks, structure,working hypotheses,retrospective and prospective framework, organization, and methodology. Then follows system of profile and backgro- und indicators for its transforming into exploratory and normative parameters,explorati- on, ie. trend analysis to build a future problems tree beginning from key problem, norma- tive approach, ie. trend optimization on base of tree of goals beginning from end goal ac- cording given criteria, verification (8 approaches!), recommendations for management on base of possible decisions tree.

In Russia today,like in the USSR yesterday,there are no any trustworthy statistics. In fact there are some contradictory data, mostly false. That is why we are to use experts inquires and on this base to build future scenarios with different level of probability and desirability. Repeating such a procedure yearly we become the futuro-monitoring of soci- al processes on global,regional,and local scale.This methodology is described in some pa- pers [1] in Russian and in a book [2] in Italian.

In such a way under framework of social forecasting it was possible to clear pro- bable and desirable perspectives of social organization of labour, division of state powers (from totalitarianism through authoritarianism towards democracy), family, school, cul- ture, science, health, urbanization, struggle against pollution of environment and against crime, army, and desalcoholization of society in Russia. On this forecasting grounding there were elaborated recommendations for policy with programs of radical reforms in all areas above recited, but as usually in such cases without any reaction from Russian po litical authorities. All these topics are described in [3].

This futuro-monitoring metodology begin to use many of 38 research groups of Russian Futures Studies Academy (Akademia Prognozirovania) established in Spring of 1997.

Exploratory technological forecasting during last 25 years did clear some modern global problems, which give us, mankind, maximum 50-100 years of the future, no more, if problems will not have optimal decisions. Nota bene: during these 25 years no one of these problems had found any radical decision, and no one of these problems can be regu lated so to say automatically, without socio-political activities. Let us remember, that main modern global problems do enclude such catastrophi cal things as growing gap between the 1st and the 3d Worlds; danger of mass destruction weapons (nuclear, chemical, and biological) diffusion to totalitarian, quasi-religious fa-natic, and mafia structures; global energy, raw materials, food, transportation, trade and in the first line population and environment disbalance; hyperurbanization in the 3d World (including many states of the late USSR); physiological and psychological degra- dation of coming generations; expansion of the shadow culture, in fact anti-culture de- stroying ethics of men; mafization of society; narcotisation of society (drugs use as way of life of growing part of society); tragic impotency of all international and national or- organizations beginning from UNOand all governments in the world concerning modern global problems. Four problems are most important in "creating the future" during some next de- cades:

1. Impossibility of doubling every 5-10 years as in last decades the production and con- sumption of energy in order to raise the living standard in the 3d World to that of the 1st World versus impossibility to "conserve" the 3d World in situation of the XX . century.

2. Impossibility of doubling and doubling the population in the 3d World as in last deca- des as well as endless depopulation in the 1st World.

3. Impossibility of endless continuation of generation gap growth and of endless expansi- on of anti-culture with its cults of violence, drugs, promiscuous sex etc.

4. Impossibility of further growth of unemployment among men aged 15-45 in the 3d World from nearly 1 billion today to 3-5 billions in 2020-2030 (including hidden and part · time unemployment).

Being educated through mass media according values of the 1st World they are and will obligatory attempt to realize their life through violence with help of totalitarian, quasi-religious fanatic, and mafia structures. As soon as these structures will have the mass destruction weapons(nuclear, chemical, bacteriological) - and it is pos- sible today or tomorrow - the World War 4 will begin some 10 years after WW 3 named "Cold War 1946-1989". [4].

The WW4 independent of its results will be the end of modern civilization. Dramatism of globalistic situation is complicated due a psychological languor of world public opinion. Too often Trumpets of Doomsday were sounding since the first report to the Club of Rome in 1972. Too abstract did appear dangers of the global cata- strophe. As a result there was created an "Effect of Habitude" to such dangers. Now we must begin to form the world public opinion in the direction of understanding the real situation, of visioning real alternatives and demanding of adequate decisions on global, regional, and local levels. To my opinion it is Priority no. 1.

The global situation of today seems to be a modern analogue of that of the end of antic civilization some 2000-1500 years ago: corruption of people in the 1st World that times versus aggression of people in the antic 3d World. From this point of view the desi- rable future of mankind in the XX1. Century according normative approach in technolo- gical forecasting may be a modern analogue of the Spirit of Puritans (Spirit of "Mayflo- wer" fathers-pilgrims), who did construct in fact the modern civilization. Or if you wish the Spirit of Neo-Confucianism, Neo-Buddhism, Neo-Christianity, Neo-Islam - becouse practical consequences in all cases are quite the same.Such a Spirit means transition to an alternative civilization capable to overcome all modern global problems including WW 4.

There is well known as much as during last 15-20 years that main parameters of this alternative civilization do include such values as Labour (Working Pleasing to God), Charity (with negation of any violence besides in relation to criminals), Family ( for nor- mal generations reproduction), Reason (no drugs, no promiscuous sex, no humiliation), Good (sence of life as a social service, as a life for society prosperity). We must also add such important things as Low Energy (with gradual reduction of thermal and nuclear energy), Sustainability (as a system of geobalances beginning from population balance with gradual reduction of the world population - generation after generation - to an op- timum of around one billion of human beings), Total Disarmament and World Govern- ment as a new quality of UNO structures, ecologization of all human activities towards organic unity with Nature, Humanization of Education and Culture adequate to recided values [5]. Alternativistics as one of main fields of futures studies was born at the end of 70-s · begin of 80-s. So it is like a teenager: already not a child, but not yet an adult. Its poten- tial is collossal,its ascendancy over world public opinion is till nowadays a "quantite ne- gligeable".

It looks like a reasoner, who does repeat and repeat: don't smoking, don't drinking, don't debauching etc.

All the people understand that all this is very bad, but everybody does sin. It is as much as the matter of fact. We must find ways not only to re- ason, but also to heart of each human being. To my opinion it is Priority of the same rank as no.1 above mentioned.

Igor Bestuzhev-Lada is President of Russian Futures Studies Academy, Professor of Moscow University, and Head, Department of Social Forecasting, Insitute of Socio- logy, Russian Academy of Sciences.

He is author of more then 20 books and some hundreds papers on futures problems.

54-4 Novo-Cheremushki, 117218 Moscow, Russia, Moscow Future Research Center (home tel.:7-095-343 0852, fax: 095-128-19-78 suv&prognoz.msk.ru).

References:

1. "Sociologitchskie Issledovania"("Sociological Studies"), 1993, no. 8, 11

2. Bestuzhev-Lada I V "Russia Transformation". Publ. by Institute of International So- ciology, Gorizia, Italia, 1997 (in Italian)

3. Bestuzhev-Lada I V "Russia 1904-2004: from Colossus to Collapse and Back". Publ. House "Rospedagentstvo", Moscow, 1997 (in Russian)

4. Bestuzhev-Lada I V "Limbo of Doomsday. Will be Apocalypse Predictions Realized?" Publ. House "Fiskultura, Obrazovanie, Nauka", Moscow, 1996 (in Russian)

5. Bestuzhev-Lada I V "An Alternative Civilization: Why and What?",Publishing House "Vlados", Moscow, 1997 (in Russian)